Home and Away: Predicting Cardinals-Braves Game 5

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Starting pitcher Jack Flaherty pitched well enough in his first post-season outing against the Braves, going 7 innings and striking out 8. It wasn’t good enough then but with any luck, a similar performance can result in a different result. He was lukewarm pitching away during the regular season but his ERA/WHIP compares favorably when put next to Mike Foltynewicz’s home record. That’s enough for us.

  • This is how they stack up.
    • Home: 50-31; Away: 41-40
      Starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty Home 7-4; Away 4-4
      Starting Pitcher ERA/WHIP: Home 2.37/0.79; Away 3.13/1.15
      Closer: Carlos Martinez Home 12 SV; 14 SVO; WHIP 0.92; 1.82 ERA/ Away 12 SV; 13 SVO; WHIP 1.44; 4.56 ERA
      Team Hitting: wOBA .314; wRC+ 95; Avg .245
      Best Hitter: Paul DeJong Home wOBA .301; wRC+ 90; Avg .219/ Away wOBA .343; wRC+ 110; Avg .247
      Pitcher vs. Best Hitter (Career): Jack Flaherty vs Ronald Acuna Jr. Avg .143; 7 AB; 1 R; 1 H; 1 RBI; 1 BB; 4 SO; .476 OPS
      Misc: Team WAR 41.9;

    It’s make or break time for the Braves. They’re sending Mike Foltynewicz to the mound and should like their chances. He was stellar in his previous appearance, going 7 and fanning 7 without any earned runs. That being said, pitching at home hasn’t always been productive for Foltynewicz and tonight may feature a return to form, especially with the added pressure of the deciding game.

    This is how they stack up.

    • Home: 50-31; Away: 47-34
    • Starting pitcher: Mike Foltynewicz Home 3-3; Away 5-3
    • Starting Pitcher ERA/WHIP: Home 4.58/1.31; Away 4.50/1.19
    • Closer: Luke Jackson Home 6 SV; 10 SVO; WHIP 1.28; 3.41 ERA/ Away 12 SV; 15 SVO; WHIP 1.51; 4.23 ERA
    • Team Hitting: wOBA .332; wRC+ 102; Avg .258
    • Best Hitter: Ronald Acuna Jr. Home wOBA .369; wRC+ 125; Avg .281/ Away wOBA .369; wRC+ 128; Avg .278
    • Pitcher vs. Best Hitter (Career): Mike Foltynewicz vs Paul DeJong Avg .364; 10 AB; 3 R; 3 H; 1 HR; 3 RBI; 1 BB; 2 SO; 1.064 OPS
    • Misc: Team WAR 42.1;

    Staff pick: St. Louis Cardinals
    Vitamin Cee’s pick: Atlanta Braves

    IMAGE SOURCE: Creative Commons

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