The central north Amazon, with extensive areas of high forest cover, natural savannas and vast indigenous territories, was not previously considered most affected by climate change. However, this region—critical to Amazonia’s cultural and biodiversity wealth—has unexpectedly emerged at the forefront of rapid climate extremes growth, according to new research.

Findings published in Communications Earth & Environment identify the Amazon experiencing rapid growth in extreme temperatures and water stress. Ten percent of the basin, an area larger than 700,000 square kilometres (bigger than Afghanistan), is witnessing extreme temperature increases during dry season of at least 0.75°C per decade and more than 3.22°C since 1981.

The research reveals that “climate extremes in the Amazon have been getting increasingly worse over the last 43 years.” Average Amazon temperatures rise at 0.21°C per decade, aligned with global warming rates.

With the 2026 El Niño expected to be the largest in living memory, the Amazon faces potential extremely high temperatures and droughts just two years after 2024’s major drought.

The study, led by Lancaster University researchers with WWF UK and over 50 international scientists, provides comprehensive assessment of Amazonia’s changing climate across four decades at high resolution.

Researchers divided the Amazon into 11km cells, using satellite and weather station data to identify dry seasons for each area. They modeled temperature changes and water stress from 1981 to 2023, assessing rates using both “central tendency” (average rates) and “extreme tendency” (exceptional years).

“We are most interested in things when they are at their hottest and driest as that is when the most harm can be caused,” stated Professor Jos Barlow, Lancaster University lead author.

The Southern Amazon, experiencing significant deforestation, remains the fastest warming region for average temperatures. However, the central north Amazon shows most rapid climate extremes growth.

“The rates of change in climate extremes are much higher than rates of average climate change,” explained Dr Nathália Carvalho, Lancaster Environment Centre post-doctoral researcher.

Professor Barlow emphasized: “Extreme climate contributes to forest fires, exceptional river levels, air pollution and high temperatures harming people, animals and forest trees. These rapid rises cannot be explained by local deforestation—it’s showing how global climate change affects the Amazon.”

Evidence of climate impacts includes first observed mass mammal deaths in the Amazon, where sloths and other animals were found dead, reductions in bird populations, and extensive forest fires contributing to air pollution in Manaus.

Dr Joice Ferreira, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, highlighted social concerns: “Extreme climate events impact local livelihoods, affecting products like açaí. This removes the safety net forests provide, threatening food security and weakening socio-bioeconomy roles.”

“Adaptation measures are urgently required,” Professor Barlow added, “including preventing deforestation and supporting forest fire fighting and local communities when rivers dry up.”

Mike Barrett, WWF-UK chief scientific adviser, stated: “Rapidly increasing climate extremes highlight urgent need for global climate action and support for measures like ending deforestation.”

The study, “Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia,” was published by Communications Earth & Environment.

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Source: Lancaster University
Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1