Dan Campbell thought the premise was ridiculous.
Of course, his Detroit Lions would compete in the final game with their best players and go all out to win. His players needed a rest?
“When we’re done with the season, they’re going to rest. I promise you that,” Campbell said.
Andy Reid, head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, took a different tactic, allowing his players to have final say. Tight end Travis Kelce could have played and extended his streak of seasons with 1,000 receiving yards, but he chose to sit out. And with the game meaning nothing to the Chiefs’ playoff position, Reid said that Kelce had chosen to be unselfish in prioritizing rest over records.
It made one thing very clear: there’s no real consensus in the NFL on whether rest or momentum is more important when going into the postseason.
It’s a difficult question to answer because the data doesn’t provide a conclusion either way. According to ESPN, over the past 20 seasons, 10 teams have clinched the No. 1 seed so far in advance that they could rest starters in the final week of the season and chose to do so. Out of those teams, five of them lost their first playoff game — and the other five reached the Super Bowl.
The Case For Rest
2009 seemed to definitively settle the argument in favor of rest — so much so, that the NFL decided to change its schedule the next year to make the last week of the season entirely divisional games. In 2009, three teams — New Orleans, Indianapolis and Arizona — all provided strong arguments for resting players and getting healthy before the divisional round.
Arizona ended the season hosting Green Bay, and thanks to winning the NFC West, it knew it would be the No. 4 seed no matter what it did on the last day. As a result, the Cardinals sent their second and third string out to avoid tipping their hand. The Packers, however, had planned to go all-out, because they still had a chance to fall to the No. 6 seed when the final week began.
Green Bay pounded Arizona’s backups 33-7, securing a rematch the following week. But in the process, the Cardinals learned how they could attack the Packers. When the starters returned, Arizona scored a 51-45 win in overtime and advanced to the divisional round.
That meant a matchup with New Orleans, which had been resting for a month after wrapping up the NFC South. The Saints appeared rusty when Arizona scored on its first play from scrimmage, but that was a mirage. The rest of the day was all New Orleans, as the Saints won 45-14.
The Saints went on to the Super Bowl and faced Indianapolis, which had done the same thing New Orleans did. But because the Colts threw away a shot at a perfect season in resting against the Jets, they took a mountain of criticism that the Saints escaped. It didn’t affect them: Indianapolis looked crisp in routing Baltimore, then proved it had been right not to tip its hand to the Jets in an easy AFC title game victory. They ran out of steam against the Saints, but resting starters certainly hadn’t hurt the Colts one bit.
The Case For Momentum
So if these teams had this much success, why don’t teams rest all the time? Two reasons: First, in many cases, they can’t. A team can only rest players if they’ve got no way to improve their seed on the last day. That was why Detroit kept its starters in the game: it didn’t want to throw away its slim chance at the No. 2 seed. Dallas and Philadelphia weren’t likely to both lose, but if they did, the Lions didn’t want to have thrown away their chance.
Second, it doesn’t always work. As of 2023, the Saints are the last team to rest starters in the last game and win the Super Bowl. In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens were the rare team that had lapped the field, posting a 13-2 record through 15 games. With heavy rain and a matchup with fierce rival Pittsburgh in Week 17, coach John Harbaugh saw no reason to put his starters through a slugfest.
The Ravens’ backups won because the Steelers were in even worse shape, but the time away backfired on Baltimore. The Ravens weren’t sharp at all two weeks later against Tennessee, as they committed three turnovers and lost 28-12 to the Titans in a game they were never close to winning.
In 2016, Dallas was the victim. Jason Garrett appeared to have the Cowboys back with a 13-2 mark, and he pulled Dak Prescott and other starters to get ready for the divisional playoffs. The Cowboys’ defense never recovered, falling behind 28-13 to Green Bay before losing 34-31.
Even when teams don’t rest, there’s a sense that the time away can mess with their rhythm. In 2021, neither Tennessee nor Green Bay rested in the final week, as both teams wanted the solo bye and needed a win to clinch it. Both got what they wanted, but it didn’t work out. The extra time away messed with both teams, and both the Titans and Packers fell in their first playoff game.
How Do Coaches Feel?
Retired Hall of Fame coach Bill Cowher thinks there’s too much made over this debate for two reasons. First, a team can’t rest every starter, because the math doesn’t work. An NFL team only dresses 46 players per game. If you pull 22 starters, that leaves your kicker, punter, long snapper and 21 other guys. That math isn’t possible.
Second, and more importantly, Cowher believed rest was more about who needed to recover and where your depth was. In a conversation with Nate Burleson and J.J. Watt on CBS, Cowher explained that after 18 weeks of practice and games, it’s not like his players would forget how to play football. He said that when he was coaching, he’d assess his depth and players’ health at each position. If he had plenty of depth at wide receiver but not much at defensive end, for example, he’d likely rest his defensive ends while letting his healthy wide receivers play.
Baltimore’s Harbaugh doesn’t seem bothered by his history with rest. The Ravens again found themselves ending the year in the rain against Pittsburgh, and again opted to rest. San Francisco, the NFC’s top seed, went for a style more like Cowher’s: Quarterback Brock Purdy rested, but several of the 49ers’ starters played, because Kyle Shanahan didn’t want his team getting rusty with three full weeks away.
If the Ravens, Chiefs or 49ers win the Super Bowl, some fans will inevitably hold them up as an example of why teams shouldn’t bother with meaningless games. If it’s the Lions, fans will say that proves the value of trying to compete hard every week.
But according to the numbers, it doesn’t matter either way. As usual, it comes down to whoever is better on that given day.
WORDS: Dan Angell.
IMAGE CREDIT: All-Pro Reels.
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