Buy, Sell, or Hold: Europe’s Top 20 Scorers

Let’s imagine for a second that professional football (soccer) players were like stocks and could be bought and sold for millions… Oh wait, they can. So let’s imagine their value could be captured by charting their goals scored per season then plotting them against a simple moving average (SMA) of their total goals. (Disclaimer: I haven’t figured out how to get exponential moving averages (EMA) which weigh more recent data more significantly than older data.) How would you trade them? Who would you buy, sell, or hold? Would any of them qualify for buy-and-hold? Who would you short?

We’ll update this page until the end of the season, maintaining it, adjusting our positions, and commenting as we go. Feel free to chime in and tell us what you’d do in the comment section or on Twitter (@SCINQsports).

*NOTE: These goal tallies represent domestic scoring only and also entails a minimum number of appearances.

1. Lionel Messi: BUY (33)

Failed to score against Huesca. Still having a stunning run of form.

2. Kylian Mbappé: BUY (27)

Mbappé registered a nassist but no goals against Lille.

3. Fabio Quagliarella: SHORT (22)

Notched a goal and an assist against Genoa. Sampdoria won 2-0.

4. Robert Lewandowsi: HOLD (21)

Lewandowski did not score against Dusseldorf.

5. Duvan Zapata: BUY (20)

Did not play against Empoli. The same can be said about Atalanta as a whole.

6. Luis Suarez: HOLD (20)

El Pistolero did not score against Huesca.

7. Cristiano Ronaldo: HOLD (19)

Sat out of Juventus’ loss to SPAL.

8. Sergio Agüero: HOLD (19)

Did not score against West Ham.

9. Mohamed Salah: BUY (19)

Salah scored, perhaps, the goal of his career against Chelsea, building on Sadio Mane’s go ahead header at Anfield. An absolute cracker from way outside the box. Finding his form again.

10. Nicolas Pepe: BUY (19)

Pepe failed to make an impact during Lille’s 1-1 draw with Reims.

11. Christian Stuani: SHORT (18)

Girona lost to Villarreal and Stuani did not score.

12. Pierre Emrick Aubameyang: HOLD (18)

Aubameyang scored a goal and completed 18 passes in a less than convincing Gunners win against Watford.

13. Sadio Mané: HOLD (18)

Kept Liverpool’s dreams alive with a go-ahead header against Chelsea.

14. Karim Benzima: BUY (18) (NEW)

Karim Benzima led the way this weekend scoring a brace against Eibar.

15. Edinson Cavani: SHORT (17)

Didn’t suit up so we’ll continue to short the Argentinian.

16. Harry Kane: STRONG SELL (17)

Injured during Spurs’s midweek Champions League match against Manchester City, Kane sat out.

17 . Luka Jovic: BUY (17)

Did not score during Frankfurt’s loss to Augsburg

18. Aekadiusz Milik: BUY (17)

Scored a 63′ goal against relegation side Chievo.

19. Raheem Sterling: BUY (17)

Scored a brace against West Ham, continuing his strong run of form.

20. Paco Alcácer: HOLD (16)

Second place Dortmund could have used some scoring in their big game against top-of-the-table Bayern Munich. Instead, they got blanked, 5-0.

WORDS: Marc Landas


IMAGE SOURCE: Creative Commons

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